Trade alert

  • Petroleum pipes石油管材: Canada postponed the release of the final ruling of the anti-dumping re-investigation. On January 4, the Canadian Border Services Agency announced that in view of the large number of exporters and agent manufacturers responding to the lawsuit, it decided to extend the final ruling period for the anti-dumping and anti-subsidy re-investigation of oil pipes imported from China by 28 days, and the final ruling is expected to be made on March 17, 2023.

Trade

  • Vietnam: In 2022, Vietnam exported a total of 2.14 million tons of natural rubber, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%; the export value reached US$3.31 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, setting a new record. China is still the largest export market for Vietnam’s rubber, with an export volume of 1.5 million tons and an export value of US$2.34 billion, accounting for 79.8% of Vietnam’s total rubber exports.
  • Argentina and China have officially expanded their currency swap agreement(货币互换协议). This currency swap agreement will help Argentine companies engaged in export business to China settle in RMB or U.S. dollars, thereby alleviating the outflow of foreign currency from the Argentine central bank and increasing its foreign exchange reserves.
  • The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) has announced that port throughput increased by 13% in 2022, reaching an estimated 237 million tonnes. Mawani said the increase in throughput came from a 3.2% increase in container volume to 10.3 million teu, a 5% increase in import and export volume to 4.8 million teu and a 2.2% increase in transshipment volume to 5.5 million teu.

Industry-China

  • CAAM(China Association of Automobile Manufacturers): In 2022, the production and sales of automobiles were 27.021 million and 26.864 million respectively, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and 2.1%. New energy and intelligent networks are the development direction of the future automotive industry. If the relevant car companies can achieve sales of 100,000sets or more, it is possible to make a profit.
  • CAAM(China Association of Automobile Manufacturers): Since the policy of halving the purchase tax of fuel vehicles was introduced in June last year, it has greatly promoted the automobile market. The industry calls for the halving policy of purchase tax to be continued in 2023. If the decline in car sales in the first quarter is serious, relevant departments will consider the continuation of the policy.

China

  • Bureau of Statistics: In December 2022, the CPI was flat month-on-month and rose by 1.8% year-on-year. From a month-on-month perspective, the supply of live pigs（ 生猪）continued to increase, and the price of pork dropped by 8.7%, an increase of 8.0 percentage points from the previous month. In December 2022, PPI fell by 0.5% month-on-month and 0.7% year-on-year, and the rate of decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. For the whole year of 2022, the CPI will rise by 2.0% over the previous year, and the PPI will rise by 4.1% over the previous year.
  • Chinese Academy of Sciences中科院: It is estimated that China’s GDP growth rate will be around 6.0% in 2023, and consumption, investment, and net exports will drive GDP growth by 3.5, 1.5, and 1.0 %, respectively. Economic growth will show an inverted “U” pattern of low, medium and high. Q1 will be around 4.2%; in Q2, affected by the low base in 2022, the growth rate will reach 9.3%; in Q3 about 5.5%, and in Q4 round 5.4%.
  • Beijing: Directory Chain 2.0 目录链2.0 was launched at 00:00 on January 1. At present, there are municipal-level data directories for more than 80 departments in the city, district-level data directories for 16 districts and economic and technological development zones, and more than 10 data directories for people’s livelihood, finance and other fields. The data directories of national social institutions are all on the “chain”. This is China’s first megacity blockchain infrastructure.
  • Zhejiang Province: Print and distribute the Zhejiang Province’s Implementation Plan for Expansion of Effective Investment “Thousands and Trillions” Projects (2023-2027)浙江省扩大有效投资“千项万亿”工程实施方案（2023—2027年）”. Focus on the construction of “415X” advanced manufacturing clusters, promote the deep integration of advanced manufacturing and modern service industries, implement 212 major provincial projects, and plan to invest 1,667.2 billion yuan in five years.
  • Zhejiang Province: Coordinate the promotion of green and low-carbon energy development 能源绿色低碳发展and the three-year action to ensure supply and price stability, optimize the energy structure, ensure energy security, implement 87 major provincial projects, and plan to invest 620.6 billion yuan in five years. Construct the overall pattern of Zhejiang’s water network水网 with “three verticals, eight horizontals and ten pivots三纵八横十枢”, implement 161 major provincial projects, and plan to invest 312.9 billion yuan in five years. Improve the resilience and reliability of urban facilities, implement 128 major provincial projects, and plan to invest 955.3 billion yuan in five years.
  • Zhejiang Province: Looking back on the work in 2022, the “three new” are impressive, that is, to fully introduce new policies, to seize new orders, and to tap new increments. In December last year alone, more than 20 government and business groups from Zhejiang Province went overseas to“ grab ”orders and brought back more than 18 billion orders.
  • Xin Baoan, Chairman of State Grid国家电网: In 2023, it is planned to start the construction of 5 more pumped storage power stations5个抽水蓄能电站 and put into operation 4 more pumped storage power stations. The installed capacity of the pumped storage power station in operation at that time will reach 38 million kilowatts, which is 1.6 times the total installed capacity of the Three Gorges（三峡大坝）. In 2023, the investment in the power grid will exceed 520 billion yuan, a record high.
  • Chinese Foreign Ministry （MFA,Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China）: China will increase direct flights to and from Thailand, Indonesia and other southeast Asian countries.
  • Ministry of Commerce: On January 11, the Ministry of Commerce and the People’s Bank of China recently jointly issued the “Notice on Further Supporting Foreign Economic and Trade Enterprises to Expand Cross-border Use of Renminbi to Promote Trade and Investment Facilitation关于进一步支持外经贸企业扩大人民币跨境使用 促进贸易投资便利化的通知”. The “Notice” requires that all kinds of cross-border trade and investment be settled in RMB, and banks should be encouraged to provide more convenient and efficient settlement services.
  • Ministry of Commerce: On January 11, the list of pilot regions for domestic and foreign trade integration 内外贸一体化 determined by 14 departments including the Ministry of Commerce was released. The list includes Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang (including Ningbo), Fujian (including Xiamen), Hunan, Guangdong (including Shenzhen), Chongqing and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.（北京市、上海市、江苏省、浙江省（含宁波市）、福建省（含厦门市）、湖南省、广东省（含深圳市）、重庆市和新疆维吾尔自治区。）

Company

  • Since 2022, listed companies such as Trina Solar天合光能, Jolywood中来股份, and JA Solar晶澳科技 have expanded their TOPCon battery capacity. Companies such as Mubang High-Tech have made cross-border layouts and disclosed expansion plans for 20GW and 10GW TOPCon battery projects. Different photovoltaic cell technology routes will “meet each other on narrow roads” in 2023, ushering in fierce competition.(PS.Photovoltaic topcon is a kind of solar cell based on the principle of selective carrier tunneling oxide layer passivation contact光伏topcon是一种基于选择性载流子原理的隧穿氧化层钝化接触的太阳能电池。)
  • Volkswagen (China): The delivery volume in the Chinese market reached 3.18 million in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of about 4%, and the market share  was 15.1%. Among them, 2,397,100 were Volkswagen and Jetta, and 642,500 were Audi. In the field of new energy, a total of more than 206,500 vehicles were delivered, a year-on-year increase of 37.1%.
  • COMAC中国商飞: C919 is planned for the next five years, and the annual production capacity is planned to reach 150. Now there are more than 1,200 orders. The production capacity has entered a mature stage, and there will inevitably be a qualitative upgrade.
  • Fliggy飞猪旅游: Bookings for Spring Festival travel in 2023 will increase by more than 60% year-on-year.
  • WSJ华尔街日报: Subway has hired advisers to explore selling itself. Industry sources said the process, which is still in its preliminary stages, is expected to attract potential corporate buyers and private equity firms, potentially valuing Subway at more than $10 billion.
  • Bill Gates: Artificial intelligence is quite revolutionary, and he is not very optimistic about Web3 and metaverse. The speed at which artificial intelligence is advancing is astonishing, and the impact can be huge. In addition, the whole method and innovation speed of ChatGPT, which has become popular recently, is very impressive. (PS. web3.0 is used to describe the potential next phase of the Internet, a “decentralized” Internet running on “blockchain” technology. Web3.0被用来描述互联网潜在的下一阶段，一个运行在“区块链”技术之上的“去中心化”的互联网 )
  • CRRC中国中车: The battery-powered locomotive电池动力机车 “tailor-made量身定制” for Thailand was officially released.
  • Shopee announced the hot search terms and keywords on the platform in 2022. According to the survey, women’s sneakers女式运动鞋 and women’s bags女式包包 are the most searched terms across all age groups, which also makes the fashion category one of the most searched categories on the platform in 2022.
  • Evergreen Shipping: announced its results. The cumulative operating income for the full year of 2022 reached NT$627.142 billion (approximately US$21.040 billion), a year-on-year increase of 28.15%. In December, the operating income was NT$29.144 billion (approximately US$950 million), a year-on-year decrease of 44.20% and a month-on-month decrease of 19.25%.
  • Uniqlo 优衣库: It will increase the salary of full-time employees in Japan from March 2023, an increase of about 40%, and the salary increase will apply to basic salary and bonus. The plan covers about 8,400 people, including employees at Fast Retailing headquarters and the company’s stores.

World

  • World Bank: The global economic growth rate is expected to slow to 1.7% in 2023, lower than the 3% growth rate predicted in June last year. This is the third lowest annual growth rate of the global economy in the past 30 years, stronger than only 2009 and 2020 year’s decline.
  • United States: In December 2022, the CPI rose by 6.5% year-on-year, returning to the “6 era”, the sixth consecutive month of decline, the smallest increase since October 2021, estimated at 6.5%, and the previous value of 7.1%. The CPI fell by 0.1% month-on-month, the first month-on-month decline since May 2020. Harker of the Federal Reserve stated that it is time to adjust the future rate hike to 25 basis points. The era of super-scale rate hikes has passed; once the rate hike is over, the Fed will need to maintain stability for a period of time. Core inflation could fall to 3.5% in 2023 and hit the Fed’s 2% target in 2025.
  • EU: Seeking to end Europe-wide drug shortages by stockpiling medicines and requiring manufacturers to guarantee supplies. Affected by factors such as the surge of diseases in the northern hemisphere in winter and the reduction of drug imports from China, it is difficult for patients in the European Union to obtain basic drugs such as penicillin青霉素 and paracetamol扑热息痛. The UK and almost all 27 EU member states have reported drug shortages.
  • Germany: The German Association for Information Technology, Telecommunications and New Media released data on January 10 stating that the development of the German digital industry is very stable and continues to grow. The association expects that in 2023, the sales of German information technology, telecommunications and consumer electronics companies will increase by 3.8% year-on-year to 203.4 billion euros; the number of employees in this industry is expected to increase by 3.4% to 1.352 million.
  • Russia: The wealthiest Russians prefer to open RMB deposit accounts in domestic banks, and the average deposit in RMB is quite large. According to data from Russia’s Alfa Bank, 90% of the 4,500 RMB deposits were opened by rich people.
  • ONS （Office for National Statistics英国国家统计局）: 16% of UK businesses affected by strikes in December 2022. Of the affected businesses, 28% said they were unable to obtain the goods they needed to do business, and 23% said they were unable to fully operate. Due to high inflation and a sharp decline in real income, British railway employees, nurses, royal mail employees, ambulance staff, teachers, bus drivers and other industries have gone on strike in recent months.
  • United Kingdom: The British government announced on January 9 that it will reduce energy subsidies for businesses.
  • Italy: A few days ago, Netcomm cooperated with Statista to conduct a survey on the Italian e-commerce market. By 2022, the number of online shopping users in Italy has reached 37 million, ranking fourth in Europe. The country has risen to fifth place in terms of e-commerce penetration, with 59% of Italians shopping online at least once in 2022. （PS,Germany ranks first in the number of online shopping consumers, with 64.6 million users. The UK and France rank second and third respectively, with 55.2 million and 48.5 million online shoppers respectively.）
  • South Korea: South Korea plans to add 5 new specialized recycling companies within the year to increase the annual processing capacity to 21,200 tons; set up transit collection and distribution facilities in 17 local cities and provinces to reduce logistics costs in the recycling process, and plan to open in 2025 Increase the distribution facilities to 200 years ago.
  • Argentina: In 2022, the growth rate of the automobile manufacturing industry leaded all major economic sectors. According to reports from the Argentine National News Agency and the Financial Times, a report released by Abeceb, a local consulting agency in Afghanistan, shows that the automobile manufacturing industry became the fastest-growing “leader” of all major economic industries in Afghanistan in 2022 with a growth rate of 24.8%, followed closely by other major industries-mining export (18%), agrochemical production (13.8%), agricultural product export (13%), household appliance production (12.5%) and crude oil production (11.5%).
  • Ghana: On January 11, the Ghana Bureau of Statistics stated that Ghana’s inflation rate in December 2022 was 54.1%, the highest in 22 years. The increase in inflation was due to higher food and non-food prices in December.