Trade alert

  • Polyester filament yarn聚酯长丝纱线: Vietnam launched an anti-dumping mid-term review investigation. On December 30, 2022, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam issued a resolution to initiate an anti-dumping mid-term review investigation on polyester filament yarn imported from China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia to review whether to adjust the current anti-dumping duties. This case involves products under the Vietnamese tax codes 5402.33.00, 5402.46.00 and 5402.47.00.
  • Myanmar: Adjust the 2023 car import policy. The Ministry of Commerce of Myanmar has recently adjusted the 2023 automobile import policy, stipulating that only left-hand drive vehicles will be allowed to be imported from 2023. The specific requirements for the production period of imported vehicles are as follows: (1) private cars: 2022 to 2023; (2) commercial vehicles (trucks, passenger vehicles): 2019 to 2023; (3) fire trucks, ambulances and work vehicles: 2014 to 2023.
  • Uzbekistan: Actively promote privatization reform, and plan to complete the privatization process of about 1,000 state-owned enterprises and state-owned projects within 2023, and strive to eliminate monopoly operations in more than 25 industries by 2026.
  • The Port of Houston in the United States（USHOU）: announced that it will charge container overtime detention fees at its container terminals from February 1, 2023. The specific charging standard is: starting from the 8th day after the end of the storage-free period, a daily detention fee of US$45/container will be charged to the imported container at the Port of Houston, and the object of the charge is the cargo owner. Demurrage charges apply to two container terminals in the Port of Houston, Barbours Cut and Bayport.

Trade

  • Ministry of Industry, Trade and Energy of South Korea: Last year, South Korea’s exports to Vietnam amounted to US$60.98 billion, its imports from Vietnam amounted to US$26.72 billion, and its trade surplus with Vietnam was US$34.25 billion, becoming Korea’s largest surplus country for the first time. The second largest trade surplus country is the United States. South Korea’s exports to the United States were US$109.82 billion, exceeding US$100 billion for the first time, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, and it has increased for six consecutive years since 2017.
  • China Securities Journal: Suzano, the world’s largest pulp producer and exporter in Brazil, recently announced that the price of its eucalyptus pulp in China will be reduced, which is the first time since the end of 2021. It is understood that the price of pulp will rise sharply in 2022. Even though the price has been lowered in the past two months, it is still at a relatively high level. The industry believes that Suzano’s reduction in the price of hardwood pulp is a business strategy to deal with the increase in supply in advance. Because in the first quarter of 2023, the global hardwood pulp market will face the challenge of two new capacity challenges: 2.1 million tons of hardwood pulp in Uruguay from UPM pulp mill in Finland and 1.56 million tons of hardwood pulp from the MAPA project of Arauco pulp mill in Chile.
  • Vietnam: According to data recently released by the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, the total import and export volume of Vietnam’s goods in 2022 is expected to reach US$732.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. Among them, exports increased by 10.6%, imports increased by 8.4%, and the trade surplus in goods was about US$11.2 billion . In 2022, Vietnam’s service exports will be about US$12.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 145.2%; service imports will be about US$25.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, and the service trade deficit will be US$12.6 billion.
  • Peru: Become China’s largest avocado牛油果 supplier. From January to September 2022, the export value of Peruvian avocados was US$976 million, of which 20,368 tons were exported to China, a year-on-year increase of 50%. The export value reached US$38 million, accounting for 4% of the total export value of Peruvian avocados.

Industry

  • Counterpoint: In fiscal 2023, global shipments of folding-screen smartphones are expected to increase by 52% year-on-year to 22.7 million units. In fiscal 2022, global shipments of folding screen mobile phones reach 14.9 million units. According to the report, the cumulative shipments from the first quarter to the third quarter of 2022 increased by 90% year-on-year, and have now reached 9.5 million units. However, due to global inflation and economic downturn, the growth rate of global folding screen smartphone shipments in the fourth quarter of 2022 is bound to decline.
  • CASS（Chinese Academy of Social Sciences）: In the next 3 to 5 years, the world economic growth rate will remain at around 3%.
  • TrendForce: LCD monitor shipments are expected to reach 135 million units in 2022, an annual decrease of 7%. Although the overall shipment performance in the first half of 2022 is quite stable, business demand will slow down significantly in the second half of the year due to reduced corporate budgets, and the consumer market will continue to expand under the effects of inflation and interest rate hikes, resulting in a sharp reduction in demand for consumer electronics products. It is estimated that the shipment of LCD monitors in 2023 will be about 127 million units, with an annual decrease of about 5.8%, returning to the level before the epidemic.
  • According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the current ratio of vehicles to piles in China is 6.8 to 1, while that in Europe and the United States is between 15 and 20 to 1. The overseas charging pile market still has great potential for development. It is estimated that in the next five years, the market size of charging piles in Europe and the United States will reach 230 billion, and the market share of Chinese companies is expected to reach 30-50%.

Industry China

  • Meituan: Travel demand in Shanghai during the New Year’s Day holiday is recovering rapidly and orderly. The overall taxi order volume has increased by more than 60% month-on-month, with the most obvious increase in the evening peak. During the New Year’s Day holiday, nighttime travel orders have nearly doubled compared to last week. From a national perspective, the travel demand in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other cities is also recovering rapidly, among which the travel recovery in Shenzhen is the most obvious.
  • CCFA (China Chain-Store & Franchise Association中国连锁经营协会): released the “2022 New Tea Drink Research Report”. It is predicted that the market share of new tea drinks in 2022 is about 104 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, which is basically the same as that in 2021. The new tea industry currently has about 486,000 stores, with a chain rate of 55%, and a young consumer group of 200 million people in China.
  • CAICT( China Academy of Information and Communications Technology中国信通院): In November 2022, 23.238 million mobile phones were shipped in the domestic market, a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. Among them, 5G mobile phones were 17.92 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 38.1%, accounting for 77.1% of mobile phone shipments in the same period. From January to November 2022, the total mobile phone shipments in the domestic market totaled 244 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 23.2%. Among them, 5G mobile phone shipments were 191 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%, accounting for 78.3% of mobile phone shipments during the same period.
  • China Galaxy Securities(银河证券): On December 30, the prices of hardwood pulp(阔叶浆), softwood pulp(针叶浆), and chemical-mechanical pulp（CMP化机浆） were 6441, 7376, and 5433 yuan/ton, respectively, a change of -0.46%, +0.4%, and 0% from last week; Double offset paper(双胶纸), double copper paper(双铜纸) and white cardboard(白卡纸) price are 6663, 5590 and 5210 yuan/ton respectively, which are the same as the prices of the previous week.

China

  • China Railway Shanghai Bureau: Recently, the Yangtze River Delta Railway’s 2023 Spring Festival travel plan was introduced. The 40-day Spring Festival travel （春运）is expected to send 60 million passengers, with an average of 1.5 million passengers per day, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%, reaching 80% of the same period in 2019.
  • Chengdu City, Sichuan Province: issued the “Chengdu Metaverse Industry Development Action Plan (2022-2025)成都市元宇宙产业发展行动方案（2022-2025年）”, which is Chengdu’s first policy document focusing on the Metaverse. By 2025, the Chengdu Metaverse industrial system has begun to take shape, and the scale of related industries will reach 150 billion yuan.
  • CAICT( China Academy of Information and Communications Technology中国信通院)： The scale of China’s big data industry is growing rapidly, increasing to 1.3 trillion yuan in 2021, with a compound growth rate of more than 30%; the number of papers published in the field of big data accounts for 31% of the world, and the total number of patents related to big data accounts for more than 50% of the world , all ranking first; in 2021, the total number of big data market players will exceed 180,000, and the total amount of investment in related companies will exceed 80 billion yuan, a record high.
  • Recently, the General Administration of Customs, the National Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Commerce issued a joint announcement to fully implement online verification and paperless customs clearance for import tariff quotas from January 1, 2023.
  • On December 31, 2022, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics（国家统计局服务业调查中心） and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing（CFLP 中国物流与采购联合会） released the China Purchasing Managers Index(PMI). The data shows that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in December 2022 was 47%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 41.6%, a decrease of 5.1 percentage points from the previous month.

Company

  • Insider Intelligence Inc.: Google and Meta Platforms Inc combined accounted for 48.4% of U.S. digital ad share. The two companies’ combined U.S. market share, which hasn’t fallen below 50% since 2014, is expected to drop to 44.9% this year due to the rise of TikTok and streaming services. For the first time in nearly 10 years, the two giants failed to win most of the US digital advertising business, and the industry expects this downward trend to continue in the next few years.
  • Apple: Starting March 1, 2023, the out-of-warranty battery service fee for all iPhone models prior to iPhone 14 will increase by $169. Out-of-warranty battery service charges will increase by $290 for all MacBook Air models, and $480 for all MacBook and MacBook Pro models.
  • SNE Research: South Korea’s three major electric vehicle battery manufacturers LG New Energy, SK On and Samsung SDI accounted for a total of 23.1% of the global market from January to November last year, down 7.4 percentage points from the same period last year. In contrast, CATL, BYD and China Innovation Aviation together accounted for 54.7 percent of the global market, up from 43.7 percent a year ago. Among them, the market share of CATL jumped from 32.2% to 37.1%.
  • The revenue of Lazada Thailand station in 2022 is about 38 billion baht.
  • Maersk completes acquisition of logistics company Martin BencherGroup.

World

  • Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare(日本厚生劳动省): As of October 2021, the number of Japanese people born between 1947 and 1949 exceeded 5.98 million, of which 68% were aged 75 or over. By 2025, all of this generation will be at least 75 years old, and their proportion in Japan’s total population will reach about 20%.
  • India’s Joint Minister of Road Transport and Highways: The goal is to double the size of the auto industry from the current $91 billion to $180 billion by the end of 2024, becoming one of the largest automakers in the world. The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways will implement projects worth $60 billion next year.
  • Britain: Data from the British Retail Consortium showed that headline food price inflation jumped to 13.3% in December from 12.4% in November.
  • Switzerland: Over the past 20 years, Switzerland’s population has grown by at least 20%, from just over 7 million in 2002 to nearly 9 million in 2022. The population of the country will cross the 9 million mark in 2023. With 30% of its residents born in other countries, Switzerland has the second-highest proportion of immigrants in Europe, after Luxembourg.
  • Venezuela: With the arrival of the “Amadeya” cruise ship and about 500 passengers on Margarita Island, Venezuela welcomed the first cruise ship from Europe in 15 years. Venezuela’s tourism industry has plummeted in nearly a decade amid a political and economic crisis that has slashed gross domestic product by 80%. Currency controls, hyperinflation, shortages and supply problems of electricity and water, and crime have driven tour operators and tourists to flee, and cruise ships are increasingly moving away from Venezuelan ports of call.
  • United States: Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) in December was 46.2, the lowest since May 2020.
  • India: Manufacturing PMI was 57.8 in December 2022.
  • UAE: PMI fell to 54.2 in December 2022.
  • Online shopping transactions in the euro zone accounted for 17% of all payments in euros.