The global epidemic has brought the chip and semiconductor industries into the public, and the market changes brought by the epidemic have brought opportunities and changes to the chip and semiconductor industries.
In the past, several companies were dominant, but now more capital, talents, and policies are tilted towards the chip and semiconductor industries. You must have seen related reports, such as “chip and semiconductor talent shortage”, “car delivery delays”, “electronic product delivery delays”, “fires caused Japanese car factories to stop production”, “Dezhou heavy snow caused chip factories to stop production and chip shortages.” “Further deterioration”, “The global chip shortage is expected to continue until the first half of 2022”, etc. So what will happen to the chip and semiconductor markets in the near future?
- China Securities Investment: It is estimated that in 2022, the global semiconductor equipment market will reach US$86 billion. The multi-directional development of semiconductor technology brings multi-dimensional development space to equipment, and the growth rate of semiconductor equipment leads the overall high-tech industry. Various types of electronic demand promote the expansion of chip scale. 2020-2025 is the peak period for the production of wafer fabs in mainland China. A number of established wafer fabs are in a period of capacity expansion and will usher in intensive production in the next 5 years. The global semiconductor industry is expected to continue to shift to mainland China, and China is expected to build 8 high-capacity wafer fabs in 2021-2022. The future development of domestic equipment is broad. The domestic breakthroughs in semiconductor equipment are accelerating, ushering in medium and long-term investment opportunities.
- Haitong Securities: IC design-related targets will gradually shift from the tight supply and demand in 2021 and the logic of “price” increase to the logic of localized substitution and “volume” increase in 2022. It is expected that the high probability of structural tightness in semiconductor wafer production capacity will continue until the middle of 2022. Overlapping AIOT, automotive electrification, and 5G brought increased demand for analog chips, power devices, MCUs, storage, and some advanced process logic ICs. The continuous increase in silicon content in the digital economy and localization support the long-term growth of domestic semiconductor industry demand.
- China Merchants Securities: The global and China MCU (micro-control unit) market has grown steadily, and domestically-made MCUs ushered in a golden age. The global MCU market is about 15-20 billion U.S. dollars, of which the global automotive MCU market in 2021 is about 7.6 billion U.S. dollars, which is the largest application field of MCUs. The 32-bit products in automotive MCUs account for 76.6%. China’s MCU market is about 25-30 billion yuan, divided into six major application markets, including home appliances and consumer electronics; the Internet of Things; smart meters, IC cards and security; computers and network communications; industrial control and automotive electronics.
- West China Securities: The lack of cores affects short-term or uncertainty, but in the medium and long term, the lack of cores is expected to accelerate the reshaping of the industrial order. The independent brands on the vehicle end will seize the market share. With smart changes, the growth curve of independent manufacturers will become steeper. Since the beginning of this year, due to the lack of cores, raw materials, and the increase in freight prices, the fundamentals have been suppressed, and the parts and components sector has experienced more overall callbacks. The subsequent replenishment of automakers will drive the repair of parts and components.